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09/04/2010 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gavin Floyd tossed six solid innings and Carlos Quentin posted two hits and scored twice as the Chicago White Sox edged Boston, 3-1, to sweep a doubleheader at Fenway Park.
Mark Teahen also had a pair of hits and Ramon Castro drove in a run for the White Sox, who took the opener by a 3-1 count and have won five straight games. Chicago also crept within 3 1/2 games of the first-place Twins in the AL Central. Minnesota beat Texas earlier Saturday.
Floyd (10-11) scattered five hits and a run in his outing, fanning five with two walks.
Marco Scutaro knocked in the lone run for the Red Sox, who have dropped five of their last seven.
John Lackey (12-9) took the loss after yielding four hits and three runs (one earned) over seven frames. He struck out seven in defeat.
Chicago struck for two runs in the seventh and took the lead for good, as Teahen singled before Quentin doubled him in and moved to third on a wild throw from Red Sox center fielder Ryan Kalish. Castro then lofted a fly to right for a 3-1 game.
Boston put two runners on against Chris Sale in the eighth, but Bobby Jenks induced an inning-ending fly out by Darnell McDonald.
Jenks then set the side down in order in the ninth to earn his 27th save -- having locked up both Chicago victories in the twinbill.
The visitors picked up a run in the third as Quentin tripled to lead off, then scored when Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia dropped a throw from Scutaro at the plate with one out.
Boston wasted a one-out double from Bill Hall in the home half, then Lackey worked out of a bases-loaded, two-out jam in the fourth by getting Castro looking at strike three.
The Red Sox broke through in the fifth as Kalish walked, Hall singled and Scutaro chased Kalish home with a base hit.
Game Notes
The White Sox have won six of the last 10 meetings with the Red Sox dating back to last season...Prior to the contest, the Red Sox announced that catcher Jason Varitek, out since June 30 with a broken right foot, has been cleared to play and will have a brief rehab stint on Sunday and Monday at Triple-A Pawtucket.
<< CB Vasher, WR Reed among Chargers' final cuts
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers pared their roster to
the 53-player maximum on Saturday, releasing 23 players as part of their "cut-
down day" moves.
Excised were wide receiver Seyi Ajirotutu, tackle Brady Bond, runni
<< FCD extends unbeaten run to 13 with win over Toronto
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas earned a 1-0 victory over Toronto FC
in Major League Soccer action at Pizza Hut Park on Saturday night.
Jeff Cunningham's eighth goal of the season and 129th of his MLS career were
enough to propel
<< Alabama starts BCS title defense with rout of San Jose State
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson each rushed
for a pair of touchdowns, and top-ranked Alabama began defense of its BCS
national title with a 48-3 win over San Jose State.
Greg McElroy and A.J. McCarron
<< Patriots list LBs Alexander, Burgess, Woods among final cuts
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Linebackers Eric Alexander, Derrick Burgess
and Pierre Woods, all of whom had a role with the Patriots in past years, were
released as part of New England's "cut-down-day" roster maneuvers on Saturday.
Alexa
Castroneves prevails at Kentucky >>
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Helio Castroneves conserved enough fuel at the
finish to win Saturday's IZOD IndyCar Series race at Kentucky Speedway.
Castroneves drove the final 53 laps around the 1.5-mile oval without pitting.
The Team P
Irvin, Tyler among Panthers' final cuts >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defensive linemen Corvey Irvin and Tank Tyler
were among the notables released by the Carolina Panthers on Saturday, as the
team reduced its roster to the 53-player maximum
Irvin, a third-round draft choice o
Lions Release CB Bly, 19 more >>
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cornerback Dre' Bly was among the players
released by the Detroit Lions on Saturday, as the team pared its roster to the
53-player NFL maximum.
Bly, an 11-year NFL veteran who returned to Detroit in the offs
Lee's eighth-inning HR pushes Astros past D'Backs >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Lee hit the game-winning three-run home
run in the eighth inning and drove in four to lead Houston to a 6-5 come-from-
behind win over Arizona in the middle meeting of a three-game series.
Lee finished
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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