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03/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a big difference between being undefeated in March and winning the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, but War Pass has an outstanding chance to join the likes of Seattle Slew, Smarty Jones and Barbaro as the lone unbeaten Derby winners since 1970.
The two-year-old Eclipse Award winner opened his three-year-old campaign back on February 24 with a smashing victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The Nick Zito-trained colt finished the flat mile in 1:36 1/5 hitting the wire 7 -lengths in front of his four overmatched rivals. Much has been made about the clockings that day, as the final and fractional times of almost all the races, even the Fountain of Youth, have been revamped more times than imaginable. Given that, some have argued that War Pass ran a full second faster, which if true, would make the allowance win even more impressive.
Perhaps the most imposing aspect of the victory was his ability to rate in the early going. This was the first race in his career that he was able to lead the field after a first quarter in over 23 seconds and a half over 46. His lack of competition had a lot to do with the fact not one horse challenged him early, but it's hard to argue with the ease of his gait and the calmness of the ride by Cornelio Velasquez.
War Pass has yet to race past 1 1/16, but his first nine-panel affair will come on March 15 in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rest of those expected to challenge him would not put fear into those betting on the two-year-old champion, so in essence, it will be another "workout" against inferior competition.
It's doubtful another horse will outrun him to the front in Tampa, unless Zito wants Velasquez to rate him in order to preserve some of his speed for longer distances, which the trainer has given zero indication will be the case. Even though it's early in the month of March, there are boatloads of questions regarding his stamina, which is the only thing holding him back from going off even money in the Kentucky Derby. Still, he is the lone three-year-old to have shown any glimpse of greatness, and it's that presence that has him sitting pretty, perched high atop the rest of his competition.
NOT MUCH BEHIND HIM
Suffice it to say, we won't know how War Pass will handle the 1 1/8 distance until his final two prep races, but for now he looks to be far and away the top contender in a year full of unpolished three-year-olds. Court Vision, this columnist's top choice, failed in his 2008 debut in the Fountain of Youth finishing third, while post-time favorite Monba was absolutely pitiful, coming home 12th and last. The winner, Cool Coal Man, a stablemate of War Pass, benefited from a perfect trip and will likely be an overbet favorite in the Florida Derby at the end of March.
For those still left on Court Vision's bandwagon, don't throw in the towel just yet. His first race this year was merely a tune-up for bigger and better things. In the Fountain of Youth, he nestled himself in last place, 12 lengths off the pace at the half, and was even further back at the three-quarter pole, before rallying for third, beaten 6 -lengths. All in all, not a terrible way to begin the year, but a more hardened workout regimen must be adhered to in order to revamp some of his lackadaisical habits.
One possible longshot to keep an eye on in the future is Halo Najib. The second-place finisher to Court Vision in last year's Iroquois made an impressive middle move only to flatten out in the final furlong to finish sixth in the FOY, and could be overlooked in his next start.
It is very interesting to compare most of the experts' top 10s prior to President's Day weekend to their current rankings. Horses that were barely getting mentioned almost one month ago are now in most handicappers' top five. Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are two who immediately come to mind. It seems that all a horse has to do to move up the list is to record a victory in a prep race. If one doesn't think this is true, just take a look at where Colonel John, Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't be shocked if at least two of these horses fail to win their next start.
Another reason these horses are constantly moving up? A genuine lack of quality underneath. It's been a rarity this year for a horse to distinguish himself with a decent second- or third-place finish, the exception being El Gato Malo's placing in the Sham Stakes behind Colonel John this past weekend. And even he has a host of question marks having never run on a dirt track, as well as being poorly bred for the 10 panels on the first Saturday in May. And for the record, both Colonel John and El Gato Malo received Beyer numbers in the mid-80s for that race.
THIS WEEK'S PREPS
The Louisiana Derby highlights this Saturday's action, and it's shaping up as the most important race of the season. Pyro will try to duplicate his victory in the Risen Star when he squares off against eight others, including Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati and J Be K.
Everyone is well aware by now of Pyro's dominating performance in early February, but this field is 10 times better than the one he faced in the Risen Star. However, his two most acclaimed rivals, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, will be making their 2008 debuts, a tough spot for any horse coming off a long layoff. The former impressed many with his fast closing finish in last year's Hopeful Stakes, while the latter took home the Futurity at Belmont last September. Still, they both have not raced since October, and War Pass and Pyro easily smashed them in the two most important two-year-old races: the Champagne and Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
J Be K is an interesting horse and one to definitely keep an eye on. The lightly-raced colt is two-for-two with his last victory coming by five lengths in an allowance race over this course on February 15. He has yet to race in anything other than a sprint and will be giving a lot away in terms of experience, but there's not much speed in the race so don't be surprised if he steals it on the front end or at least holds second to Pyro.
The other prep race this Saturday comes from New York, where Giant Moon and Visionaire do battle with eight others. Giant Moon is undefeated with four consecutive victories, but this will be his first race in two months. Visionaire was last seen finishing third to Pyro in the Risen Star and could knock off the "Giant" if he improves off that effort. Don't forget Visionaire got the best of Elysium Fields, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, in his maiden win in November of 2007.
JEFF FRANK'S TOP 10 DERBY PROSPECTS
Pool 2 wagering begins this Thursday so get your wallets ready. Here is this week's top 10 list followed by Pool 1 closing odds:
1) Court Vision, 15-1; 2) War Pass, 6-1; 3) Pyro, 5-1; 4) Colonel John, 19-1; 5) Tomcito, 3-1 (field); 6) Denis of Cork, 46-1; 7) El Gato Malo, 16-1; 8) Atoned, 3-1 (field); 9) Fierce Wind, 3-1 (field); 10-T) Giant Moon, 51-1, and Big Truck, 3-1 (field).
<< Cards renew contracts of Wainwright, Reyes
Jupiter, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals renewed the contracts
of pitchers Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes Tuesday.
The 26-year-old Wainwright went 14-12 with a 3.70 earned run average last
season, while Reyes was a di
<< Crosby to return from high ankle sprain
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh Penguins superstar center
Sidney Crosby will make his return to the lineup after missing six weeks with
a high ankle sprain, the club announced Tuesday.
The club placed Crosby on injured
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It would be safe to assume that rarely in the NHL has a
team's head coach pushed his players to take a penalty. Yet, when the Chicago
Blackhawks find themselves down a man, they are the ones making the other team
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Chi
<< Lions sign TE Gaines
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions signed free agent tight
end Michael Gaines to a four-year deal and re-signed tight end John Owens to a
one-year deal on Monday. Additional terms were not disclosed.
Last season, Gaines
Forsberg set for second act with Avalanche >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peter Forsberg announced that he will make his
return to NHL action with the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday night as the club
takes on division-rival Vancouver at Pepsi Center.
Forsberg returns to the ice with
Forsberg to make debut as Avs host Canucks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The turnstile that is the Avalanche's active roster
continues to turn. Though down two players, Colorado will have Peter Forsberg
on the ice tonight as it hosts the Vancouver Canucks at the Pepsi Center.
Forsberg participa
Preds trying to tighten up on defense >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While winning the Central Division is pretty much out of
reach, the Nashville Predators are still in the thick of the chase for a
playoff spot.
Entering play on Tuesday, Nashville is even with Vancouver and Colorado for
t
Schalke is Germany's only hope >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Schalke has fallen out of the championship
race in Germany's Bundesliga, but arguably remains the most important club to
the country right now.
Schalke is the lone German team still in the Champions League
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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