Lookin At Lucky advances in poll after Haskell win

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/02/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion colt Lookin At Lucky made a double move in this week's NTRA National Thoroughbred Poll off his victory Sunday in the Haskell Invitational. The three-year-old colt jumped from fifth to third following the impressive victory at Monmouth Park.

Lookin At Lucky, the 2009 champion two-year-old male, ran to a four-length win over six rivals in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell. The commanding victory enabled him to receive 128 points, third most in the voting. The colt is expected to start in the Travers at Saratoga on August 28.

Champion mare Zenyatta remains atop the poll with 14 first-place votes and 173 points, nine fewer points than last week. The undefeated six-year-old will have her next start on Saturday, August 7 at Del Mar in the Clement L. Hirsch, a race she has won the last two years.

Four-year-old colt Quality Road retains the second spot with four first-place votes and 161 points, 10 less than the previous week. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Quality Road is set to start in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga Race Course also on August 7.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra falls one spot to fourth with 118 points. Last week she received 125 points after winning the Lady's Secret at Monmouth. She will next race at Saratoga on August 29 in the Personal Ensign.

Four-year-old colt Blame suffered another drop in the rankings. He is now fifth with 98 points. Last week he was fourth after being third in the poll. He is also slated for the Whitney Handicap.

Moving up from seventh to sixth with 49 points is five-year-old mare Tuscan Evening.

Three-year-old filly Blind Luck received 43 points to move into seventh from eighth. She will make her next start in the Alabama at Saratoga on August 21.

Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti fell from sixth to eighth with 42 points. The 2009 champion turf and older male will defend his title in this month's Arlington Million.

Devil May Care, winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks, is ninth with 31 points. She is scheduled to face Blind Luck in the Alabama.

The 10th spot in the poll is now held by Proviso with 26 points. The five- year-old mare won Saturday's Diana Stakes at Saratoga over two-time defending winner Forever Together.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver fell out of the top 10 after finishing fourth in the Haskell.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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