Iguodala's flailing in Philly

Basketball Betting Lines

11/06/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Early returns are not necessarily a harbinger of the future.

If they were, John Kerry would have been running for reelection on Tuesday and John McCain would have cried uncle two months ago.

So, we all went through the motions, while McCain hoped every single poll in the civilized world got it wrong.

"It ain't over til it's over," isn't just a rallying cry.

Just ask the Atlanta Hawks, who stormed back from a 23-point deficit to stun the Philadelphia 76ers in Atlanta last week.

And that brings me full circle to Andre Iguodala, the Sixers' "star" swingman who inked a six-year $80 million dollar extension in the offseason.

A.I. version 2.0 had his coming out party last season, his first free of the "selfish" Allen Iverson. And give Iggy credit, he looked a lot more comfortable being "the guy" who never shied away from a big shot in a big situation.

The Sixers surprised everyone by finishing 40-42, making the playoffs and taking the mighty Detroit Pistons to six games in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

Of course at the end of the day, 40-42 is what it is...mediocrity.

Sixers basketball chief Ed Stefanski knew Iguodala was best-suited as a complimentary piece, a player that should pattern his game after Scottie Pippen -- stuff the stat sheet and help your team win a different way every night.

Stefanski got his primary option during the offseason in Elton Brand and the former Duke product has been as advertised, averaging a double-double, 16.4 ppg and 11.8 rpg, through five contests.

The problem in Philadelphia has been Iguodala, who can't seem to accept his reduced role, at least if the early returns can be trusted.

When Iverson was in Philly, everyone was quick to write off Iguodala's faults. After all, the enigmatic Iverson needed the ball and ignored his teammates. So, when Iguodala went in his funks, the Sixers conveniently blamed it on a player they wanted to go.

What's the excuse now?

Brand is the most unselfish star in the NBA this side of Kevin Garnett. Iguodala gets plenty of touches but seems to sulk on the floor.

Through five games, the former Arizona star is shooting a woeful 38.8 percent from the floor and averaging just 10.0 points a game -- fifth on the team He's also turning the ball over at an alarming rate for a team that leads the NBA in flubs.

Things hit rock bottom in South Beach on Wednesday when the Sixers were routed by a poor Miami team, 106-83, to fall to 2-3 on the season.

Heat superstar Dwyane Wade piled up 29 points, seven rebounds, six assists, five steals and three blocks with Iguodala as his primary defender. The offensive end of the floor was even worse for Iggy, as he was limited to two points on 1-of-7 shooting.

It's conceivable that Iguodala's start is an anomaly and he flips the switch, finally accepting his role and flourishing.

Of course, the last time I looked Barack Obama was elected as the 44th President of the United States on Tuesday.

Moral of the story?

Sometimes the early returns are spot-on.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.