Aging Senators and Gonchar a good fit

Hockey Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 13 seasons and that's an impressive statistic. But for a city that hasn't won a Stanley Cup since 1927, it's only the first step. Playing in the postseason will be expected of the Sens in 2010-11, but how far they go will depend on the health of key veterans and the impact of newly acquired defenseman Sergei Gonchar.

Using last season as a barometer for this year's outlook isn't fair, considering key injuries undermined the Senators' quest for postseason glory. Ottawa fought valiantly in the 2009-10 playoffs before falling to the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games, and did so without key regulars like right winger Alexei Kovalev, defenseman Filip Kuba and forward Milan Michalek. If those personnel losses weren't enough to send the club packing, captain Daniel Alfredsson revealed he'd been playing with a painful abdominal tear that was corrected with a sports hernia procedure in May.

With an offseason heavy on rehabilitation, the Sens look ready to compete, but the feeling in Ottawa is more desperate than in years past. With key veterans getting older, this group is running out of time.

At 37 years of age, Alfredsson is entering his 15th NHL season, and asking him to maintain the average of nearly a point per game pace he's posted throughout his career may be a stretch. But Alfredsson is a ferocious competitor and even if his production takes a small step backwards, his leadership will provide heart and soul for the group.

The same can't be said about the Senators' other aging scorer, Kovalev, who will turn 38 next season. Kovalev notched only 49 points in 77 games last season before sustaining a torn ACL in his left knee, an injury that could spell the end of the flashy winger's days of domination. Entering the final year of a two-year, $10 million contract he signed in 2009, Kovalev will be expected to produce, making him a key player in Ottawa's eventual success or failure.

To help Kovalev and company, General Manager Bryan Murray signed former Penguins defender Sergei Gonchar to a free agent contract this summer. The 36- year-old defenseman inked a three-year, $16 million deal with the club when the departure of defenseman Anton Volchenkov, who signed a six-year, $25.5 million deal with the New Jersey Devils, opened up a spot for a top-level free agent. Gonchar will provide some spark for a power play that finished 21st in the league last year and working him into the team's offensive approach will be a central focus for head coach Cory Clouston.

Gonchar is one of the league's premier point men and should help players like Kovalev, Alfredsson and Jason Spezza find the back of the net with more regularity. Gonchar brings 15 years of experience, 684 points and a Stanley Cup ring with him to Ottawa and fans should look forward to seeing him in Senators' red, black and white instead of Penguins' black, white and gold this year.

With Alfredsson, Kovalev and Gonchar, the Senators have three aging superstars on the wrong side of 35 making up a good portion of their core. As a result, mainstays like Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher will be expected to carry more of the load on a nightly basis. Spezza, 27, will look to rebound from a disappointing season in which he tallied only 57 points after averaging 85 points in his previous four campaigns.

Fisher, who vacated his previous role as a third-line grinder to become a legit scorer last year, will be hard-pressed to match his career highs of 25 goals and 53 points, but with the crafty Gonchar manning the point, the opportunities should be plentiful.

Save for the addition of Gonchar and the departure of Volchenkov, Ottawa is essentially the same team as last year's squad that finished fifth in the Eastern Conference with 94 points. If the Senators' big guns are truly healthy, they have many of the tools to improve on that point total while taking aim at a long and sustained playoff run. Canada's capital city has waited 83 years for a championship team, and this year's squad will have to find the fountain of youth if that drought is going to end.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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