92nd PGA Championship Preview

Golf Betting Lines

08/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's PGA Championship at Whistling Straits is historic.

Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time since 1997, it's impossible to realistically see Tiger Woods contending for a major championship.

You know how some people just unilaterally take Tiger whenever the prop bet is Tiger versus the field? I know one of them. Johnnie Pie is his name and so I asked if he would take Woods against the field for the PGA?

"No way," was the text reply.

There we have it. "No way."

Woods' game is in tatters the likes of which we've never seen. We have no clue where his ball is going, but worse, neither does Woods. Hank Haney is no longer a factor. He's off with Rush Limbaugh on the Golf Channel talking about clubhead speed and capital gains.

The true tale of Woods' woes manifested itself at last week's Bridgestone Invitational. He's won that championship seven times and what transpired had to be the most discouraging professional week of his career.

Woods' 78th-place finish was his worst as a professional since the 1996 Greater Milwaukee Open. That was his first professional start, by the way. Woods' 18-over par was his worst score in relation to par as a pro.

This is a tournament he won seven times, remember.

What made the performance all the more troublesome was that Woods appeared to be uninterested at times. On Saturday, Woods hit some shots without taking so much as practice swing. He'd walk right into a bunker, hit it, hand the club to caddie Stevie Williams and move on to the green.

On Sunday, his tee shot barely sailed right en route to hitting a spectator in the mouth before Woods started walking after it. He tried to reach the 16th green in two, which Nick Faldo called on Sunday "a suicide shot." Woods never used to do that.

Yes, Woods has had to endure personal problems all year and constant questions from the media. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time. Woods brought everything on himself and he has to endure it.

No one knew exactly what to expect from Woods on the golf course, but no one could have reasonably suspected Woods would actually regress through the schedule.

Some, like The Sportsbook Betting Lines's own Roger Farrell, believed Woods would gain freedom by just playing golf now that his sordid secrets were out in the open. Golf could be the sanctuary, but that theory appears to have been debunked with prejudice.

Remember that Woods' 2010 season started with actual promise. He tied for fourth at the Masters and the U.S. Open. Sure, he had a missed cut and a withdrawal in between, but Woods had a pair of top-fives in majors, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

But, as colleague Gerard Gallagher pointed out, those scores appear to be the anomaly. Woods didn't break 70 at the AT&T National. He shot a 67 at St. Andrews, then didn't break 72. Woods is just nowhere with his game right now.

That has to terrify Woods a little. He's had some slowish periods in his career, but nothing remotely close to this. Woods has no swing coach to fix things and who knows what the status of his personal life is.

Woods is completely lost in the game of golf for the first time ever. Fixing it at the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits is not a rosy proposition, so it's tough to think he has any reasonable chance.

At least Woods was able to hold on to the No. 1 world ranking, although through very little fault of his own. He tied for 78th. Had Phil Mickelson shown anything on Sunday, Lefty would be No. 1 this week.

With Woods already on a plane to Wisconsin, Mickelson needed a fourth or better to finally be recognized statistically as the game's best. He was tied for 10th at the start of the final round, but a front-nine 41 meant another week at No. 2.

Mickelson won this year's Masters and hasn't done much of anything else. He contended at the U.S. Open, but faltered on Sunday and hasn't really flirted with the top of the leaderboard since.

Ernie Els is in a great spot. He's a two-time winner this year on the PGA Tour and leads the FedEx Cup points list. Els' 64 on Saturday in Akron showed his mid-season mini-rut was a thing of the past.

Luke Donald has put together a season almost as good as anyone this year. Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk are both multiple winners on the PGA Tour in 2010. Justin Leonard is finally playing decent golf based on last week and was a runner-up to winner Vijay Singh at Whistling Straits in 2004.

As is the case with the PGA Championship, international teams are to be decided. Corey Pavin's automatic eight on the American Ryder Cup side will be finalized come Sunday.

Does Woods vault into the top eight and spare Pavin from the potentially embarrassing scenario where he asks Woods and Tiger says "no thank you?"

See, even the Ryder Cup questions revolve around Tiger.

This really is historic.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.